“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6). Games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a 350+ game sample. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll. The Money Zone is 11-4 ATS in 2018
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. Picks of the week are 7-1 ATS in 2018
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New Orleans +3 @ Atlanta: In this NFC South showdown, I think the Saints have great value coming off two straight losses against the spread. While the Saints were unimpressive in their first 2 weeks, I think it’s a great time for them to go on the road and get away from the home town hype. Unlike many Saints teams in the past, this version has a proven track record on the road. After starting off slow in 2017 at 0-2, they went on the road and annihilated the Carolina Panthers 34-14. I have a feeling that we could have a similar result this week. The Saints established momentum in critical road victories last year despite their outdated perception that they are a classic soft, dome team.
While I wasn’t worried about the Atlanta defense’s key injuries last week, I think those very same injuries will be a major factor against the Saints. Unlike the Panthers, New Orleans has one of the most balanced offenses in the league and can hurt you in almost any way. I expect Brees to exploit matchups in the middle of the field where Keanu Neal and Deion Jones will again be absent. Although they lost in Atlanta last year, I was specifically encouraged by how their defense played the Falcons in both matchups.
As you can see, the Saints defense has largely kept them in check. The running game was almost eliminated at under 4 yards per carry, and they picked off Ryan 4 times in the matchups. If they are able to replicate just a decent percentage of these trends, I think they should come out on top.
I’d be shocked if +3.5 presents itself. I think the proper play would be on +3 with reduced/favorable juice.
Random Thoughts from Around the League:
The Money Zone is a scorching 47-24 (over 66%) ATS since week 9 of last season. Unquestionably the best run I’ve ever been on.
I haven’t seen a line on the JAX/TEN game, I left it off the spreadsheet. I would expect something in the ball park of -7.5, but I would recommend laying off that after their big win.
KC has been fun to watch with their offensive fireworks, but if they don’t improve their defense they won’t go anywhere in the playoffs.
I think both Pittsburgh and New England will get back on track this weekend. 2 games you’re probably better off just taking the over and enjoying a few cold ones.
Miami sneakily has posted a 55 defensive passer rating through 2 games, very impressive. I saw shades of that type of defense when they destroyed Brady at home last season. Worth keeping an eye on them.
Chicago has also been impressive in the early going, but look for them to lay an egg this week. Trubisky is still making a lot of rookie type mistakes, and there’s no way Arizona is as pathetic as they’ve looked through the first few.
Jets/Cleveland….. are they serious with that Thursday Night game?
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